The global wildland-urban interface.

The wildland-urban interface (WUI) is where buildings and wildland vegetation meet or intermingle1,2. It is where human-environmental conflicts and risks can be concentrated, including the loss of houses and lives to wildfire, habitat loss and fragmentation and the spread of zoonotic diseases3. However, a global analysis of the WUI has been lacking. Here, we present a global map of the 2020 WUI at 10 m resolution using a globally consistent and validated approach based on remote sensing-derived datasets of building area4 and wildland vegetation5. We show that the WUI is a global phenomenon, identify many previously undocumented WUI hotspots and highlight the wide range of population density, land cover types and biomass levels in different parts of the global WUI. The WUI covers only 4.7% of the land surface but is home to nearly half its population (3.5 billion). The WUI is especially widespread in Europe (15% of the land area) and the temperate broadleaf and mixed forests biome (18%). Of all people living near 2003-2020 wildfires (0.4 billion), two thirds have their home in the WUI, most of them in Africa (150 million). Given that wildfire activity is predicted to increase because of climate change in many regions6, there is a need to understand housing growth and vegetation patterns as drivers of WUI change.

Trickle-down climate risk regulation.

Climate change impacts-including flooding, wildfires, and crop failures-are destroying ecosystems, homes, infrastructure, farms, and businesses. Regulators around the globe are paying increasing attention to what these events mean for banks and the financial system, with several attending not only to bank impacts from, but also bank contributions to, climate change. The European Central Bank, for example, is signaling to banks that they must plan and make their transition away from financing of fossil fuels-to respond not only to their own risks but also to the science pointing to the necessity of this transition for the planet and financial system. Yet in the US, the primary regulators of national and community banks are narrowly zeroing in on risks posed to the largest banks-those with over $100 billion in total consolidated assets-without attention to these banks' role in financing greenhouse gas-emitting activities and what they mean for other important financial actors. Such a "trickle-down" approach to regulation-assuming that protecting big banks will protect other, smaller financial entities and the financial system more broadly-obscures the financial crisis that is already underway and inadequately responds to scientific evidence on distinctive features of climate risk and impacts.

Engagement in local and collaborative wildfire risk mitigation planning across the western U.S.-Evaluating participation and diversity in Community Wildfire Protection Plans.

Since their introduction two decades ago, Community Wildfire Protection Plans (CWPPs) have become a common planning tool for improving community preparedness and risk mitigation in fire-prone regions, and for strengthening coordination among federal and state land management agencies, local government, and residents. While CWPPs have been the focus of case studies, there are limited large-scale studies to understand the extent of, and factors responsible for, variation in stakeholder participation-a core element of the CWPP model. This article describes the scale and scope of participation in CWPPs across the western United States. We provide a detailed account of participants in over 1,000 CWPPs in 11 states and examine how levels of participation and stakeholder diversity vary as a function of factors related to planning process, planning context, and the broader geographic context in which plans were developed. We find that CWPPs vary substantially both by count and diversity of participants and that the former varies as a function of the geographic scale of the plan, while the latter varies largely as a function of the diversity of landowners within the jurisdiction. More than half of participants represented local interests, indicating a high degree of local engagement in hazard mitigation. Surprisingly, plan participation and diversity were unrelated to wildfire hazard. These findings suggest that CWPPs have been largely successful in their intent to engage diverse stakeholders in preparing for and mitigating wildfire risk, but that important challenges remain. We discuss the implications of this work and examine how the planning process and context for CWPPs may be changing.

Warming weakens the night-time barrier to global fire.

Night-time provides a critical window for slowing or extinguishing fires owing to the lower temperature and the lower vapour pressure deficit (VPD). However, fire danger is most often assessed based on daytime conditions1,2, capturing what promotes fire spread rather than what impedes fire. Although it is well appreciated that changing daytime weather conditions are exacerbating fire, potential changes in night-time conditions-and their associated role as fire reducers-are less understood. Here we show that night-time fire intensity has increased, which is linked to hotter and drier nights. Our findings are based on global satellite observations of daytime and night-time fire detections and corresponding hourly climate data, from which we determine landcover-specific thresholds of VPD (VPDt), below which fire detections are very rare (less than 95 per cent modelled chance). Globally, daily minimum VPD increased by 25 per cent from 1979 to 2020. Across burnable lands, the annual number of flammable night-time hours-when VPD exceeds VPDt-increased by 110 hours, allowing five additional nights when flammability never ceases. Across nearly one-fifth of burnable lands, flammable nights increased by at least one week across this period. Globally, night fires have become 7.2 per cent more intense from 2003 to 2020, measured via a satellite record. These results reinforce the lack of night-time relief that wildfire suppression teams have experienced in recent years. We expect that continued night-time warming owing to anthropogenic climate change will promote more intense, longer-lasting and larger fires.

COVID-19 lockdowns drive decline in active fires in southeastern United States.

Fire is a common ecosystem process in forests and grasslands worldwide. Increasingly, ignitions are controlled by human activities either through suppression of wildfires or intentional ignition of prescribed fires. The southeastern United States leads the nation in prescribed fire, burning ca. 80% of the country's extent annually. The COVID-19 pandemic radically changed human behavior as workplaces implemented social-distancing guidelines and provided an opportunity to evaluate relationships between humans and fire as fire management plans were postponed or cancelled. Using active fire data from satellite-based observations, we found that in the southeastern United States, COVID-19 led to a 21% reduction in fire activity compared to the 2003 to 2019 average. The reduction was more pronounced for federally managed lands, up to 41% below average compared to the past 20 y (38% below average compared to the past decade). Declines in fire activity were partly affected by an unusually wet February before the COVID-19 shutdown began in mid-March 2020. Despite the wet spring, the predicted number of active fire detections was still lower than expected, confirming a COVID-19 signal on ignitions. In addition, prescribed fire management statistics reported by US federal agencies confirmed the satellite observations and showed that, following the wet February and before the mid-March COVID-19 shutdown, cumulative burned area was approaching record highs across the region. With fire return intervals in the southeastern United States as frequent as 1 to 2 y, COVID-19 fire impacts will contribute to an increasing backlog in necessary fire management activities, affecting biodiversity and future fire danger.

Detecting critical nodes in forest landscape networks to reduce wildfire spread.

Although wildfires are an important ecological process in forested regions worldwide, they can cause significant economic damage and frequently create widespread health impacts. We propose a network optimization approach to plan wildfire fuel treatments that minimize the risk of fire spread in forested landscapes under an upper bound for total treated area. We used simulation modeling to estimate the probability of fire spread between pairs of forest sites and formulated a modified Critical Node Detection (CND) model that uses these estimated probabilities to find a pattern of fuel reduction treatments that minimizes the likely spread of fires across a landscape. We also present a problem formulation that includes control of the size and spatial contiguity of fuel treatments. We demonstrate the approach with a case study in Kootenay National Park, British Columbia, Canada, where we investigated prescribed burn options for reducing the risk of wildfire spread in the park area. Our results provide new insights into cost-effective planning to mitigate wildfire risk in forest landscapes. The approach should be applicable to other ecosystems with frequent wildfires.

Riesgo integrado de asentamientos humanos conurbación Valparaíso - Viña del Mar / Integrated risk of human settlements Valparaíso conurbation: Viña del Mar

El presente documento tiene por objetivo mostrar los resultados del Piloto de Riesgo integrado de Asentamientos humanos, realizado en la Conurbación Valparaíso-Viña del Mar por el Equipo Asentamientos Humanos en el marco del proyecto ARClim. El objetivo del piloto fue construir y validar una metodología para evaluar riesgos en asentamientos humanos frente a múltiples amenazas climáticas. Utilizando de base el marco teórico-metodológico descrito en el working package de asentamientos humanos del proyecto ARCLim (Urquiza et al., 2020) donde se expone una definición integral para abordar el concepto de Riesgo, se construyeron 5 cadenas de impactos relevantes para la población con sus respectivos mapas de amenaza, exposición, sensibilidad y riesgo a escala subcomunal (manzana censal).

Overwintering fires in boreal forests.

Forest fires are usually viewed within the context of a single fire season, in which weather conditions and fuel supply can combine to create conditions favourable for fire ignition-usually by lightning or human activity-and spread1-3. But some fires exhibit 'overwintering' behaviour, in which they smoulder through the non-fire season and flare up in the subsequent spring4,5. In boreal (northern) forests, deep organic soils favourable for smouldering6, along with accelerated climate warming7, may present unusually favourable conditions for overwintering. However, the extent of overwintering in boreal forests and the underlying factors influencing this behaviour remain unclear. Here we show that overwintering fires in boreal forests are associated with hot summers generating large fire years and deep burning into organic soils, conditions that have become more frequent in our study areas in recent decades. Our results are based on an algorithm with which we detect overwintering fires in Alaska, USA, and the Northwest Territories, Canada, using field and remote sensing datasets. Between 2002 and 2018, overwintering fires were responsible for 0.8 per cent of the total burned area; however, in one year this amounted to 38 per cent. The spatiotemporal predictability of overwintering fires could be used by fire management agencies to facilitate early detection, which may result in reduced carbon emissions and firefighting costs.

The changing risk and burden of wildfire in the United States.

Recent dramatic and deadly increases in global wildfire activity have increased attention on the causes of wildfires, their consequences, and how risk from wildfire might be mitigated. Here we bring together data on the changing risk and societal burden of wildfire in the United States. We estimate that nearly 50 million homes are currently in the wildland-urban interface in the United States, a number increasing by 1 million houses every 3 y. To illustrate how changes in wildfire activity might affect air pollution and related health outcomes, and how these linkages might guide future science and policy, we develop a statistical model that relates satellite-based fire and smoke data to information from pollution monitoring stations. Using the model, we estimate that wildfires have accounted for up to 25% of PM2.5 (particulate matter with diameter <2.5 µm) in recent years across the United States, and up to half in some Western regions, with spatial patterns in ambient smoke exposure that do not follow traditional socioeconomic pollution exposure gradients. We combine the model with stylized scenarios to show that fuel management interventions could have large health benefits and that future health impacts from climate-change-induced wildfire smoke could approach projected overall increases in temperature-related mortality from climate change-but that both estimates remain uncertain. We use model results to highlight important areas for future research and to draw lessons for policy.

Early forest-fire detection using scanning polarization lidar.

As forest terrain is complex, containing leaves and other obstacles, it is difficult to distinguish the signal of forest-fire smoke when using single-channel lidar. To address this difficulty, a scanning micropulse polarization lidar system is developed, and a new method to detect forest fires is proposed in this study. Based on the characteristics of the depolarization ratio of in-scene obstacles, a matrix is constructed to remove obstacle signals, which in turn reduces the misidentification rate. Artificial forest-fire tests are carried out to verify the correctness of the proposed method and the feasibility of early forest-fire detection using the scanning polarization lidar system. In the working mode, the developed polarizing lidar system can locate a forest fire within three minutes with the proposed method. The experimental results show that forest fires can be accurately detected in real time when using scanning polarization lidar.